Farmer's Almanac

Included in a blogpost commenting about the unusual June weather here in the New York metropolitan area and global climate change in general was a link to the Farmer's Almanac long-range weather forcast
which is quoted below. The prediction covers the "Atlantic corridor" from Richmond to Boston.

Detailed Forecast for the Next Two Months

June 2009 Avg. Temperature: 73° (2° above avg.) Precipitation: 2" (1.5" below avg.) Jun. 1-4: Showers north; sunny, hot south Jun. 5-8: Scattered showers, seasonable Jun. 9-11: Sunny, comfortable Jun. 12-15: Scattered t-storms, hot Jun. 16-22: Sunny, warm Jun. 23-27: T-storms, hot, then cooler Jun. 28-30: Sunny

July 2009 Avg. Temperature: 74° (2° below avg.) Precipitation: 3" (1" below avg.) Jul. 1-6: T-storms, cool Jul. 7-12: Sunny, very warm Jul. 13-19: Showers, warm, then cool Jul. 20-22: Scattered t-storms, hot Jul. 23-26: Sunny, cool Jul. 27-31: T-storms, cool

Temperature and Precipitation
November 2008 to October 2009

But according to our friends at NOAA 's National Weather Service as of June 19 we are 5.2 inches of rain above normal and 2 degrees below normal. That's a pretty big miss for the venerable almanac. But in fairness that's only one month so how did they do in the other months? (this is the part where my students would get to work researching, making tables and graphs and analyzing data...)

For May NWS reported precipitation .48 inches above normal, another miss for the almanac.
For April NWS reported precipitation .40 inches above normal, another miss for the almanac.

As the records back farther than 2 months are for sale (and I can't afford them) I can't go back further today (feel free to send a check) but we can keep track from this day forward easily enough.


So don't be shy, set up a little spreadsheet and go to the NWS Climate page and keep track of how the Farmer's Almanac does OR see how well the experts do by checking on the NWS predictions for the next three months.

Have fun!

Mr Hazen